Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Iraq: Costs: Some of them hidden

At the end of December, Congress approved $70 billion in bridge funding—a down payment to cover the gap between the beginning of the fiscal year and the passage of the actual appropriation bill—to keep financing the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Legislators at the time were still chewing on the rest of President George W. Bush’s request for a fiscal year 2008 war budget of $196 billion. Should that funding be appropriated—and if recent history is any guide, it certainly will—then the total price tag for America’s present wars will rise to at least $822 billion, approximately 80 percent of which will be spent on Iraq. That surpasses the cost of the Vietnam War ($670 billion in inflation-adjusted dollars). And the Iraq portion dwarfs the $50 billion to $60 billion cost predicted at the outset of the war by Mitch Daniels, then director of the Office of Management and Budget.

These runaway costs do not include a single dollar from the Pentagon’s annual operating budget, which in 2008 reached a whopping $481 billion. If the war were being accounted for based on a rational, transparent budget process instead of an opaque and politicized shell game, Americans would be painfully aware that we are now in the seventh year of what the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has called a $1 trillion war.

How much money is $1 trillion? Enough to pay for the entire 1976 federal budget, adjusted for inflation. Enough to write a check for $37,500 to every Iraqi man, woman, and child. Enough to buy 169,492 Black Hawk helicopters, or 455 stealth bombers. Enough, in nominal terms, to pay for the entire federal government from 1789 to 1957. And it’s 10 times more than what specialists predict it would take to eradicate malaria once and for all. http://reason.com/news/printer/125438.html

Post 9/11: More Surveillance and warrants, fewer prosecutions: Makes sense, since the number of terrorists that threaten us has been consistently exaggerated since 9/11

The emphasis on spy programs [] is starting to give pause to some members of Congress who fear the government is investing too much in anti-terrorism programs at the expense of traditional crime-fighting. Other lawmakers are raising questions about how well the FBI is performing its counter-terrorism mission.

....Even some former government officials concede many intelligence investigations fail to yield evidence of a serious threat to the U.S. "Most of these threats ultimately turn out to be wrong, or maybe just the investigating makes them go away," said Washington lawyer Michael Woods, former head of the FBI national security law unit. "A lot more information is going to pass through government hands, and most of that is going to be about people who turn out to be innocent or irrelevant." http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-justice12-2008may12,0,4309444.story?track=rss.

Growing Interest in Nukes: At least 40 developing countries are hoping to commence nuclear power programs. Since some of these countries are in the Middle East and have access to ample supplies of oil and natural gas, the burgeoning interest is not only due to higher oil prices.

At least 40 developing countries from the Persian Gulf region to Latin America have recently approached U.N. officials here to signal interest in starting nuclear power programs, a trend that concerned proliferation experts say could provide the building blocks of nuclear arsenals in some of those nations.

At least half a dozen countries have also said in the past four years that they are specifically planning to conduct enrichment or reprocessing of nuclear fuel, a prospect that could dramatically expand the global supply of plutonium and enriched uranium, according to U.S. and international nuclear officials and arms-control experts.

Much of the new interest is driven by economic considerations, particularly the soaring cost of fossil fuels. But for some Middle Eastern states with ready access to huge stocks of oil or natural gas, such as Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the investment in nuclear power appears to be linked partly to concerns about a future regional arms race stoked in part by Iran's alleged interest in such an arsenal, the officials said. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/11/AR2008051102212_pf.html

Asia: Cyclones, Earthquakes…and Bombings: Amidst incredible devastation, bombings in India that are said to be at regular intervals.

Seven bombs exploded Tuesday night in a crowded and ancient section of the northwestern Indian city of Jaipur, killing at least 60 people and seriously injuring scores of others, officials said.

No group immediately took responsibility for the attacks, and it was not clear what the motive might be.

Government counterterrorism analysts say that attacks like these have become more common -- often occurring every three to five months -- in Indian cities in recent years and appear to be carried out by disgruntled Muslim youth with help from groups in Pakistan. They are intended to deepen sectarian divisions between Hindus and Muslims and often occur in mixed neighborhoods, near mosques or temples. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/13/AR2008051301132_pf.html

Bush Heads to the Middle East: Exquisite timing by Junior

President Bush called embattled Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert an 'honest man' Monday even as a corruption probe of the former Jerusalem mayor widened.

"With a new poll showing that most Israelis believe Olmert is a crook, the growing scandal threatened to overshadow Bush's visit Tuesday to mark the 60th birthday of the Jewish state and promote peacemaking with the Palestinians. . . .

"Last week, Olmert admitted he had accepted hundreds of thousands of campaign dollars in cash-stuffed envelopes from Long Island businessman Morris Talansky.

"But he denied any wrongdoing and said he'd resign if indicted." http://www.nydailynews.com/news/us_world/2008/05/13/2008-05-13_bush_ehuds_honest_despite_rap.html

CAMPAIGN:

Leaving aside the already decided presidential races, Mississippi has the most noteworthy race, as the Democrats try to take a traditionally- and overwhelmingly- Republican seat. With over 89% of the vote in, it’s apparent that Travis Childers will win, even though the GOP has used ads to portray him as a supporter of the Black Devil, ‘Barack Obama-Pastor Wright.’

West Virginia: Didn’t matter at all, as Obama gained twice as many super delegates this week as Clinton gained in the Mountaineer state. Then, she gave what Terry McAuliffe said was to be ‘one of the greatest speeches ever.’ If not spectacular, it touched all the bases Clinton needed to touch, beginning with ‘send me more money! Plus, ‘I’m doing it for the women… AND the working class!’ And, she got theatrical-maudlin as she talked of a dying woman casting her absentee vote for Clinton and a kid cashing in his video game to donate to her. Foolish kid. Shameless speech.

WaPo/ABC news poll

Tuesday morning’s WaPost/ABC poll found Obama comfortably ahead of McCain. Indeed, as more understand him to be the winner, his lead should solidify. http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Vote2008/Story?id=4837828&page=2

That same poll revealed that more Americans are uncomfortable voting for an elderly candidate than for a woman or an African-American.

-R

# posted by Richard @ 11:01 PM

Sunday, May 11, 2008

Voter ID Moves Ahead: Missouri A state that would matter in November

The battle over voting rights will expand this week as lawmakers in Missouri are expected to support a proposed constitutional amendment to enable election officials to require proof of citizenship from anyone registering to vote.

The measure would allow far more rigorous demands than the voter ID requirement recently upheld by the Supreme Court, in which voters had to prove their identity with a government-issued card.

Sponsors of the amendment — which requires the approval of voters to go into effect, possibly in an August referendum — say it is part of an effort to prevent illegal immigrants from affecting the political process. Critics say the measure could lead to the disenfranchisement of tens of thousands of legal residents who would find it difficult to prove their citizenship.

Voting experts say the Missouri amendment represents the next logical step for those who have supported stronger voter ID requirements and the next battleground in how elections are conducted. Similar measures requiring proof of citizenship are being considered in at least 19 states. Bills in Florida, Kansas, Oklahoma and South Carolina have strong support. But only in Missouri does the requirement have a chance of taking effect before the presidential election.

In Arizona, the only state that requires proof of citizenship to register to vote, more than 38,000 voter registration applications have been thrown out since the state adopted its measure in 2004. That number was included in election data obtained through a lawsuit filed by voting rights advocates and provided to The New York Times. More than 70 percent of those registrations came from people who stated under oath that they were born in the United States, the data showed. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/12/us/politics/12vote.html?_r=1&hp=&oref=slogin&pagewanted=print

Shoddy Medical Care in ‘Immigrant Prisons’: WaPost 4 part series:

Some 33,000 people are crammed into these overcrowded compounds on a given day, waiting to be deported or for a judge to let them stay here.

The medical neglect they endure is part of the hidden human cost of increasingly strict policies in the post-Sept. 11 United States and a lack of preparation for the impact of those policies. The detainees have less access to lawyers than convicted murderers in maximum-security prisons and some have fewer comforts than al-Qaeda terrorism suspects held at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.

But they are not terrorists. Most are working-class men and women or indigent laborers who made mistakes that seem to pose no threat to national security: a Salvadoran who bought drugs in his 20th year of poverty in Los Angeles; a U.S. legal U.S. resident from Mexico who took $50 for driving two undocumented day laborers into a border city. Or they are waiting for political asylum from danger in their own countries: a Somali without a valid visa trying to prove she would be killed had she remained in her village; a journalist who fled Congo out of fear for his life, worked as a limousine driver and fathered six American children, but never was able to get the asylum he sought. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/nation/specials/immigration/cwc_d1p1.html

Lebanon: Hezbollah Triumphant Observers can’t decide if they’ve “taken over, a coup” or whether they’ve made their point and will withdraw from the ‘conquered’ sections of Beirut:

In one swoop, the Shiite Muslim militia Hezbollah took over a large section of Lebanon's capital Friday, altering the country's political balance and demonstrating a level of military discipline and efficiency that left the pro-Western government struggling to exert its authority.

Within 12 hours, the Iranian-backed group dispatched hundreds of heavily armed Shiite fighters into the western half of Beirut, routing Sunni Muslim militiamen, destroying opponents' political offices and shutting down media outlets loyal to the government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and to Sunni leader Saad Hariri's Future movement.

At least 10 people were killed in the fighting, security officials said. Hezbollah used a lot of gunfire but inflicted minimal damage to public infrastructure, they said.

Meanwhile, the Lebanese army largely stood aside, underscoring its reluctance to take sides in a political stalemate that has left the country without a president since November.

The clashes were troubling far beyond Lebanon's borders. The country, long an arena for competing regional interests, has become one of a number of political and military battlefields where allies of the United States compete against Iranian-backed interests. The U.S. sees the moderate, Western-leaning government as a model for the region; Iran, which nurtured Hezbollah from its birth, considers the Lebanese militia a major strategic asset. http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-lebanon10-2008may10,0,1323502.story

Mortgage Crisis Deepens: Prime Mortgage Foreclosures They’re up as well.

The first concrete evidence that delinquencies on mortgage bills have spread well beyond those with subpar credit shows that even prime borrowers have increasingly fallen behind on their house payments.

The figures remain relatively small so far. But if they rise further, delinquencies on prime loans — given only to those with good credit — could prolong the housing crisis.

About 2.3% of prime loans were 60 days past due in February, the highest level in at least a decade, according to data from First American CoreLogic LoanPerformance. That's up from 1.4% a year ago.

Some economists, such as Brian Bethune of Global Insight and Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, say they think delinquencies on prime loans have likely risen further since then.

"We're seeing the prime area coming under pressure, with delinquencies moving up," Bethune says. "We're in uncharted territory, and it's definitely been affecting the prime market, although it's still not anywhere as severe as in the subprime market." http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20080509/1a_lede09_dom.art.htm?loc=interstitialskip

The Right, the Pulpit, & Tax Law: Stretching the Bounds…

A conservative legal-advocacy group is enlisting ministers to use their pulpits to preach about election candidates this September, defying a tax law that bars churches from engaging in politics.

Alliance Defense Fund, a Scottsdale, Ariz., nonprofit, is hoping at least one sermon will prompt the Internal Revenue Service to investigate, sparking a court battle that could get the tax provision declared unconstitutional. Alliance lawyers represent churches in disputes with the IRS over alleged partisan activity.

The action marks the latest attempt by a conservative organization to help clergy harness their congregations to sway elections. The protest is scheduled for Sunday, Sept. 28, a little more than a month before the general election, in a year when religious concerns and preachers have been a regular part of the political debate.

It also comes as the IRS has increased its investigations of churches accused of engaging in politics. Sen. Barack Obama's denomination, the United Church of Christ, has said it was under investigation after it allowed the Democratic presidential candidate to address 10,000 church members last year. Last summer, the tax agency said it was reviewing complaints against 44 churches for activities in the 2006 election cycle. Churches found to be in violation can be fined or lose their tax exemptions. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121029464937179517.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Public Pension Crisis: Many a local government has been playing fast and loose with public employee funds resulting in "a massive breach of faith with a generation of public employees.”

The funds that pay pension and health benefits to police officers, teachers and millions of other public employees across the country are facing a shortfall that could soon run into trillions of dollars.

But the accounting techniques used by state and local governments to balance their pension books disguise the extent of the crisis facing these retirees and the taxpayers who may ultimately be called on to pay the freight, according to a growing number of leading financial analysts.

State governments alone have reported they are already confronting a deficit of at least $750 billion to cover the cost of the retirement benefits they have promised. But that figure likely underestimates the actual shortfall because of the range of methods they use to make their calculations, including practices that have been barred in the private sector for decades.

Local governments use these same techniques for their pension funds and face deficits that further contribute to what some investors and analysts say may be shaping up to be a massive breach of faith with a generation of public employees.

This gap is growing more yawning with the years. It has already presented taxpayers with a whopping bill that is eating up a vast portion of government budgets at the cost of other services. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/10/AR2008051002883_pf.html

CAMPAIGN:

Evangelicals: Not so tight with the Right. Reports aplenty as to their making alliances with non-conservatives, being active in environmental causes. Thus, it’s unclear as to where their support will go:

Michael Dudley is the son of a preacher man.

He's a born-again Christian with two family members in the military. He grew up in the Bible Belt, where almost everyone he knew was Republican. But this fall, he's breaking a handful of stereotypes: He plans to vote for Democrat Barack Obama.

"I think a lot of Christians are having trouble getting behind everything the Republicans stand for," said Dudley, 20, a sophomore at Seattle Pacific University.

Dudley's disenchantment with the GOP isn't unique among young, devoutly Christian voters. According to a September 2007 survey by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, 15 percent of white evangelicals between 18 and 29, a group traditionally a shoo-in for the GOP, say they no longer identify with the Republican Party. Older evangelicals are also questioning their traditional allegiance, but not at the same rate.

But, Howard Dean, don't count your chickens quite yet. College-age and 20-something Christians may be leaving the GOP, but only 5 percent of young evangelicals have joined the Democrats, according to the Pew survey. The other 10 percent are wandering the political wilderness, somewhere between "independent" and "unaffiliated."

Shane Claiborne, a Philadelphia Christian activist and author of "Jesus for President: Politics for Ordinary Radicals," has a different name for these folks: "political misfits."

Claiborne has traveled around the country the past several years, speaking and preaching mostly to college-age Christians who are "both socially conservative and globally aware." That makes them disenchanted with both major parties, he said.

"It's not about liberal or conservative, or Democrats or Republicans," he said. "I don't think it's a new evangelical left. ... There's a new evangelical stuck-in-the-middle." http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/cgi-bin/PrintStory.pl?document_id=2004406277&zsection_id=2003956730&slug=evangvote11m&date=20080511

McCain:

(1) Not such clean hands: Helping his fundraisers: A not uncommon action by the purportedly righteous senator:

Sen. John McCain championed legislation that will let an Arizona rancher trade remote grassland and ponderosa pine forest here for acres of valuable federally owned property that is ready for development, a land swap that now stands to directly benefit one of his top presidential campaign fundraisers].

Initially reluctant to support the swap, the Arizona Republican became a key figure in pushing the deal through Congress after the rancher and his partners hired lobbyists that included McCain's 1992 Senate campaign manager, two of his former Senate staff members (one of whom has returned as his chief of staff), and an Arizona insider who was a major McCain donor and is now bundling campaign checks.

When McCain's legislation passed in November 2005, the ranch owner gave the job of building as many as 12,000 homes to SunCor Development, a firm in Tempe, Ariz., run by Steven A. Betts, a longtime McCain supporter who has raised more than $100,000 for the presumptive Republican nominee. Betts said he and McCain never discussed the deal. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/08/AR2008050803494_pf.html

(2)Trouble for McCain?: Bob Barr weights run: The idiosyncratic conservative is considering a run as a libertarian.

More than a month after Barr, 59, set up an "exploratory committee" to gauge how many Americans would vote for him as a Libertarian presidential candidate, he is still considering whether to enter the race.

The world inside the Beltway, it seems, is indifferent.

"Unless he commits a felony between now and November, no one will ever remember he ran for president," said Charlie Cook, political analyst and editor of the Cook Political Report.

Yet there are rumblings among Republicans that Barr could steal crucial votes from John McCain in a tight November election. Sean Hannity, the conservative talk show host, has branded Barr a "spoiler," and a Newsweek contributing editor, George F. Will, has warned that Barr could be "ruinous" to McCain in the same way that Ralph Nader was to Al Gore in 2000.

With less than two weeks before the Libertarian Party selects its presidential nominee, Barr will discuss his plans at a news conference Monday in Washington. http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-barr10-2008may10,0,7640220.story

(3) Lobbyist staffers quit; tied to Burma regime: Again, not so clean:

Doug Davenport, the regional campaign manager for the mid-Atlantic states, founded the DCI Group's lobbying practice and oversaw the contract with Myanmar in 2002.

"Doug has tendered his resignation and we have accepted it," Jill Hazelbaker, McCain's communications director, wrote in a e-mail.

He joins former DCI Group CEO Doug Goodyear, who resigned yesterday from the post of convention CEO after Newsweek reported that DCI was paid more than $300,000 to represent Myanmar's ruling junta.

Goodyear and Davenport were recruited by McCain's campaign manager, Rick Davis, who has been accused by some current and former McCain advisers of take insufficient care of McCain's reformer brand by appointing lobbyists to key positions. Ironically, as Newsweek reported, Goodyear was asked to become convention CEO after Davis's lobbying firm partner, Paul Manafort, was nixed because of his own close ties to foreign governments and controversial companies. http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/a_second_mccain_aide_resigns.php

Toles http://www.hoffmania.com/blog/2008/05/from-the-pen-14.html

-R

# posted by Richard @ 10:47 PM

Thursday, May 08, 2008

Oil: James Pethokoukis of US News looks at life with $200 oil.

It's an economic experiment I would rather not take part in: seeing how $200-a-barrel oil would affect the U.S. and global economy. "The possibility of $150-$200 per barrel seems increasingly likely over the next six-24 months, though predicting the ultimate peak in oil prices as well as the remaining duration of the upcycle remains a major uncertainty'' is what Goldman Sachs economist Arjun Murti wrote earlier this week. (Note that Murti blames the weak dollar for a good part of the continuing rise in oil prices.)

Murti is hardly alone in such seemingly spectacular speculation. Analysts at Deutsche Bank and CIBC World Markets, investor Jimmy Rogers, and the current president of OPEC have all made such forecasts.

And what would such a price rise do to the economy? Market strategist Ed Yardeni thinks he has a pretty good idea (bold is mine):

A super-super spike would most likely put a stake in the heart of global economic growth. A global economic downturn would be the most likely outcome, led by a longer and deeper recession in the US. Then again, in this scenario, the price of oil would probably fall rapidly and sharply back down to $100 a barrel, or even lower, as demand weakened. Wouldn't the drop in oil prices then revive economic growth? Normally, it would, but if the super-super spike occurs, the resulting longer and deeper recession could trigger the dreaded "negative feedback loop" from the credit crisis. http://www.usnews.com/blogs/capital-commerce/2008/5/7/can-the-economy-survive-200-a-barrel-oil.html?s_cid=rss:capital-commerce:can-the-economy-survive-200-a-barrel-oil

Scandal times at the Office of Special Counsel chief Scott Bloch: Ongoing investigation that I’ve ignored till now. Two posts:

A veteran Republican lawmaker called on Office of Special Counsel chief Scott J. Bloch to resign yesterday, one day after nearly two dozen FBI agents raided OSC headquarters and carted off boxes of documents and equipment that officials said were related to a probe of Bloch's activities.

"In light of the various investigations into Mr. Bloch's conduct, including the FBI probe revealed yesterday, it's hard to believe he can continue to operate effectively," Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (Va.), the top Republican on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, said in a statement. "It's time the OSC put this turbulent period behind it."

Bloch, appointed by President Bush in 2003 to protect government whistle-blowers and to enforce prohibitions on political activity in the federal workplace, is facing allegations of political bias, obstruction of justice and mismanagement. The inspector general at the Office of Personnel Management has investigated Bloch since 2005 over alleged mistreatment of employees and his handling of whistle-blower cases, but Tuesday's raid was a significant escalation.

Bloch and more than a dozen current and former OSC employees have been served with subpoenas to appear before a grand jury, which will probably begin hearing testimony the week of May 19, sources familiar with the investigation said. The lead prosecutor is Assistant U.S. Attorney James Mitzelfeld, who works on public corruption cases.

Other critics have also called for Bloch's ouster, including the Project on Government Oversight (POGO) and Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility -- both nonprofit groups -- and a lawyer representing several current and former OSC employees. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/07/AR2008050703971_pf.html

FBI agents investigating government watchdog Scott Bloch have subpoenaed any records that would reveal whether concerns about the 2004 elections prompted him to clear Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice of ethics violations.

Bloch, the U.S. special counsel who investigates federal employee whistleblower complaints, found no merit to allegations that Rice, then President Bush's national security adviser, timed some of her trips to boost Bush's 2004 reelection campaign.

The FBI is investigating whether Bloch obstructed justice by destroying computer files to hinder an outside inquiry into allegations that he retaliated against employees who opposed his policies. He's also suspected of making false statements to investigators.

FBI agents, who searched Bloch's office and home Tuesday, subpoenaed 17 of his current and former employees to appear before a federal grand jury and asked them to bring any documents related to possible tampering of records in the office's electronic investigative tracking system, McClatchy has learned.

Officials with knowledge of the investigation also told McClatchy that the FBI has subpoenaed records about the decision to assign Rice's case to an investigator. The officials asked to remain anonymous because they weren't authorized to discuss the investigation.

It's unclear whether the FBI is looking into Bloch's decision to clear Rice or whether agents are seeking evidence in separate obstruction and false-statements investigation. http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/36329.html

Burma: Almost unimaginable situation, as the Burmese government continues to slow aid. Bodies everywhere, a lack of clean water, epidemics feared:

As hungry, shivering survivors waited among the dead for help after a huge cyclone in Myanmar, aid agencies and diplomats said Wednesday that the delivery of relief supplies was being slowed by the reluctance of the country’s secretive military leaders to allow an influx of outsiders.

With conditions growing worse in the vast, flooded Irrawaddy Delta region, the top United States diplomat in Myanmar estimated that the death toll could rise as high as 100,000, from the official tally of 22,500. An accurate assessment might take days or weeks to emerge.

Relief workers and survivors described scenes of horror as people huddled on spits of dry ground surrounded by bodies and animal carcasses floating in the murky water or lodged in mangrove trees.

With Myanmar mostly closed to foreign journalists, information was coming from aid agencies, residents and diplomats based there. Witnesses spoke of fights over dwindling supplies of food and clean water, of hordes of people overwhelming the few shops still open. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/08/world/asia/08myanmar.html?_r=1&oref=slogin&ref=todayspaper&pagewanted=print

Zimbabwe: Opposition activists are killed: the ruling party is “quieting” opponents, and targeting teachers and aid workers:

Gangs of youths loyal to Zimbabwe's ruling party beat to death 11 opposition activists in a remote town this week in an escalation of post-election violence, opposition party officials and witnesses said Wednesday.

Two large truckloads of youths, led by two senior members of President Robert Mugabe's party, marauded through Chiweshe, a rural area about 90 miles north of the capital, Harare, and beat prominent opposition members with branches, gun butts, bicycle chains and whips, party officials said. Four of the victims were teachers, and at least two were elderly.

Several calls to police spokesman Wayne Bvudzijena were not answered, though telephone service in Zimbabwe is often poor, one of many elements of the country's infrastructure that has deteriorated in recent years. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/07/AR2008050702252.html

Lebanon: The Shiite and Sunni battle has flared up:

The decision by the Lebanese government to shut down a private telephone network operated by the Iranian-backed group Hezbollah was an act of war and Hezbollah would defend itself, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, said on Thursday.

The comments were among Mr. Nasrallah’s strongest since the beginning of Lebanon’s months-long political crisis and may signal a new level of confrontation between Hezbollah and its supporters and the Western-backed government. Tensions have escalated in recent days, and clashes and gunfire continued on the streets of Beirut on Thursday as Hezbollah tried to enforce a general strike called by labor unions.

On Tuesday, the government said that it would send troops to shut down a telephone network operated by Hezbollah in south Lebanon and the southern suburbs of Beirut.

“This decision was a declaration of war and the start of war on the resistance and its weapons,” Mr. Nasrallah said, speaking via satellite at a news conference convened by Hezbollah in the southern suburbs of Beirut. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/08/world/middleeast/09lebanon.html?_r=1&hp=&oref=slogin&pagewanted=print

Iraq: Using the Medically “Non-Deployable: The Pentagon has done this since 2003.

More than 43,000 U.S. troops listed as medically unfit for combat in the weeks before their scheduled deployment to Iraq or Afghanistan since 2003 were sent anyway, Pentagon records show.

This reliance on troops found medically "non-deployable" is another sign of stress placed on a military that has sent 1.6 million servicemembers to the war zones, soldier advocacy groups say.

"It is a consequence of the consistent churning of our troops," said Bobby Muller, president of Veterans For America. "They are repeatedly exposed to high-intensity combat with insufficient time at home to rest and heal before redeploying."

The numbers of non-deployable soldiers are based on health assessment forms filled out by medical personnel at each military installation before a servicemember's deployment.

According to those statistics, the number of troops who doctors found non-deployable but who were still sent to Iraq or Afghanistan fluctuated from 10,854 in 2003, down to 5,397 in 2005, and back up to 9,140 in 2007.

The Pentagon records do not list what — or how serious — the health issues are, nor whether they were corrected before deployment, said Michael Kilpatrick, a deputy director for the Pentagon's Force Health Protection and Readiness Programs. http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20080508/1a_lede08_dom.art.htm

USA: End of a Superpower(?) Michael Klare posits that oil is our downfall, our Berlin Wall (being torn down).

Nineteen years ago, the fall of the Berlin Wall effectively eliminated the Soviet Union as the world's other superpower. Yes, the USSR as a political entity stumbled on for another two years, but it was clearly an ex-superpower from the moment it lost control over its satellites in Eastern Europe.

Less than a month ago, the United States similarly lost its claim to superpower status when a barrel crude oil roared past $110 on the international market, gasoline prices crossed the $3.50 threshold at American pumps, and diesel fuel topped $4.00. As was true of the USSR following the dismantling of the Berlin Wall, the USA will no doubt continue to stumble on like the superpower it once was; but as the nation's economy continues to be eviscerated to pay for its daily oil fix, it, too, will be seen by increasing numbers of savvy observers as an ex-superpower-in-the-making.

That the fall of the Berlin Wall spelled the erasure of the Soviet Union's superpower status was obvious to international observers at the time. After all, the USSR visibly ceased to exercise dominion over an empire (and an associated military-industrial complex) encompassing nearly half of Europe and much of Central Asia. The relationship between rising oil prices and the obliteration of America's superpower status is, however, hardly as self-evident. http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/174929

CAMPAIGN: Mixed signals, as campaign chief Howard Wolfson negotiates a book contract, i.e. the campaign is wrapping up, while she pushes on and continues to fire away.

USA Today: Clinton fires up the Race issue; Is everyone too tired, too ‘moved on,’ just wanting to ignore her? Is that why there’s no reaction?

Hillary Rodham Clinton vowed Wednesday to continue her quest for the Democratic nomination, arguing she would be the stronger nominee because she appeals to a wider coalition of voters — including whites who have not supported Barack Obama in recent contests.

"I have a much broader base to build a winning coalition on," she said in an interview with USA TODAY. As evidence, Clinton cited an Associated Press article "that found how Sen. Obama's support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me."

"There's a pattern emerging here," she said…

Obama spokesman Bill Burton said that in Indiana, Obama split working-class voters with Clinton and won a higher percentage of white voters than in Ohio in March. He said Obama will be the strongest nominee because he appeals "to Americans from every background and all walks of life. These statements from Sen. Clinton are not true and frankly disappointing."

Clinton rejected any idea that her emphasis on white voters could be interpreted as racially divisive. "These are the people you have to win if you're a Democrat in sufficient numbers to actually win the election. Everybody knows that." http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-05-07-clintoninterview_N.htm

Mike Barnicle:

Now, faced with a mathematical mountain climb that even Stephen Hawking could not ascend, the Clintons -- and it is indeed both of them -- are just about to paste a bumper sticker on the rear of the collapsing vehicle that carries her campaign. It reads: VOTE WHITE. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mike-barnicle/race-is-all-the-clintons_b_100660.html

Rumors/Speculations: Why is she staying in?

(1) Clinton is angling for help retiring her debt… help from Obama. I doubt that contributors to Barack would want their money spent to bail out the failed Clinton campaign.

(2) She’s seeking to force a VP offer from Obama, one that he’s hardly wanting to make. (Would you want her and Bill hanging around?)

Super-delegates: He’s 8 behind, though counts differ. http://www.politico.com/superdelegates/

McCain the Maverick: He did ‘good cop, bad cop’ with Cindy (‘I won’t reveal my finances- ever.’) McCain: She said ‘John will run an honorable, respectful campaign.’ John said that Obama is the candidate of Hamas.

As to his reputation, it’s time to challenge the notion that he is a man of principle.

Over the years, Sen. John McCain has publicly condemned Republican Party leaders and occasionally voted against the GOP on selected issues. But an Arizona Republic analysis of his Senate votes on the most divided issues in the past decade shows that McCain almost never thwarted his party's objectives.

....During the 10 years The Republic examined, McCain crossed over to vote with Democrats 19 times in 82 close votes. He did so just once in the four years he was running for president: 1999, 2000, 2007 and 2008. http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/0507mccainvotes0507.html

-R

# posted by Richard @ 11:07 PM

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

I didn't expect when I ran for president that I would avoid this kind of politics; I ran because it is time to end it ... We will end it by telling the truth. Forcefully, repeatedly, confidently. - Obama victory speech

CAMPAIGN: Once again, ‘it’s over.’

With Obama winning decisively in Carolina and Clinton apparently winning a very narrow victory in Indiana- perhaps only because of the not inconsiderable help from Rush Limbaugh urging his minions to vote for her- her delegate math, her claims about momentum, her hope for a popular vote lead- they’re all done.

Obama’s speech moved on, sounding like a pre-acceptance speech. She’ll have trouble moving from her prediction:

"This primary election on Tuesday is a game changer. This is going to make a huge difference in what happens going forward. The entire country -- probably even a lot of the world -- is looking to see what North Carolina decides." http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/05/clinton-tuesday.html

NY Times sum-up:

In this case, a split was not a draw.

In what early returns suggested would be a win for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton in Indiana but a loss for her in North Carolina, Tuesday’s results did not fundamentally improve her chances of securing the Democratic presidential nomination. If anything, Mrs. Clinton’s options for overtaking Senator Barack Obama may have dwindled further.

For Mr. Obama, the apparently divided outcome came after a brutal period in which he was on the defensive over the inflammatory comments of his former pastor. That he was able to hold his own under those circumstances should allow him to make a case that he has proved his resilience in the face of questions about race, values and patriotism — the very kinds of issues that the Clinton campaign has suggested would leave him vulnerable in the general election.

When paired with Mr. Obama’s comfortable victory in North Carolina, a bigger state, Mrs. Clinton’s performance in Indiana did not seem to be enough to cut into Mr. Obama’s lead in pledged delegates or in his overall lead in the popular vote. And because Mrs. Clinton did not appear to come particularly close in North Carolina, despite a substantial effort there, she lost an opportunity to sow new doubts among Democratic leaders about Mr. Obama’s general-election appeal. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/07/us/politics/07assess.html?_r=1%26hp=%26oref=slogin%26pagewanted=print

Oil: Upward: Do I hear $150? 200?

Crude oil prices could surge to $200 a barrel in the next two years, according to the Goldman Sachs analyst who three years ago correctly predicted a price “super-spike” above $100 a barrel.

The warning by Arjun Murti came as oil prices hit a fresh high above $122 a barrel, boosted by supply disruptions in Nigeria, lower output in Russia and continued robust demand in China ahead of the Olympics.

Mr Murti said the energy crisis could be coming to a head as a lack of adequate supply growth was becoming apparent.

He said: “The possibility of $150-$200 per barrel seems increasingly likely over the next six to 24 months.” http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/70b4ef0a-1b91-11dd-9e58-0000779fd2ac.html

Executions: Resumed

Georgia executed killer William Earl Lynd last night, ending a more than seven-month nationwide hiatus on capital punishment prompted by the Supreme Court's examination of lethal injection.

Lynd's execution at 7:51 p.m. was the first since the court ruled April 16 that the three-drug protocol most commonly used in executions by states and the federal government did not constitute cruel and unusual punishment.

The court last night turned down Lynd's last-minute request for a stay, as the Georgia Supreme Court had earlier in the day. He was executed at the Georgia Diagnostic and Classification Prison in Jackson. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/06/AR2008050602747_pf.html

Iraq Funding: Dems struggle with how to deal.

President Bush sent lawmakers a $70 billion request Friday to fund U.S. operations in Iraq and Afghanistan into next spring, which would give the next president breathing room to make his or her own war policy.

"Friday's request fills in the details of the $70 billion placeholder that the White House asked for when it sent its budget to Congress in February. The money is for the budget year that begins Oct. 1.

"Congressional analysts say Bush's request would bring the total spending since Sept. 11, 2001, to fight terrorism and conduct the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to $875 billion.

"The request comes as Democrats on Capitol Hill are struggling to move Bush's pending $108 billion request for the current year. Democratic leaders say they're likely to add the $70 billion for next year to that measure, which would allow them to avoid a politically painful vote on war funding in the heat of campaigning for the November elections." http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080503/ap_on_go_pr_wh/bush_iraq_funding

Iraq History: Ricardo Sanchez Account: The retired general with some precious, though hardly surprising, observations about our Commander in Chief: Dateline D.C. /Fallujah, April, 2003:

Sanchez, in a memoir to be released Tuesday, said Bush 'launched into what I considered a kind of confused pep talk' about the battle for Fallujah and an upcoming campaign to kill or capture radical anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and cripple his militia.

"Kick ass!” Bush said. “If somebody tries to stop the march to democracy, we will seek them out and kill them! We must be tougher than hell! . . .

Stay strong! Stay the course! Kill them! Be confident! Prevail! We are going to wipe them out! We are not blinking. . . .

Fueled by images beamed by the Al-Jazeera television network, the administration quickly reversed course, stopping Operation Vigilant Resolve. Soon after, Coalition Provisional Authority administrator L. Paul Bremer dropped plans to capture or kill al-Sadr, even though the president had said during the April 7, 2003, meeting, 'It is essential he be wiped out,' according to the memoir. . . .

Sanchez's nearly 500-page memoir, 'Wiser in Battle: A Soldier's Story,' takes the administration to task for a series of missteps that he says have made it impossible for America to leave Iraq. He wants a 9-11-style investigation into why the United States went to war in Iraq, and also said Bush's 'suspension' of the Geneva Conventions “led to putting America on the path to torture." http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/military/stories/MYSA050508.1A.sanchezbook.3889a18.html

Voter ID: How it works:

About 12 Indiana nuns were turned away Tuesday from a polling place by a fellow bride of Christ because they didn't have state or federal identification bearing a photograph.

Sister Julie McGuire said she was forced to turn away her fellow sisters at Saint Mary's Convent in South Bend, across the street from the University of Notre Dame, because they had been told earlier that they would need such an ID to vote.

The nuns, all in their 80s or 90s, didn't get one but came to the precinct anyway.

"One came down this morning, and she was 98, and she said, 'I don't want to go do that,'" Sister McGuire said. Some showed up with outdated passports. None of them drives.

They weren't given provisional ballots because it would be impossible to get them to a motor vehicle branch and back in the 10-day time frame allotted by the law, Sister McGuire said. "You have to remember that some of these ladies don't walk well. They're in wheelchairs or on walkers or electric carts." http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2008/05/indiana_nuns_lacking_id_denied.php

Gitmo: Closing?

The Bush administration could announce plans by the end of its term in January to close Guantanamo prison and an upcoming Supreme Court ruling might be the impetus for this, senior U.S. officials and experts say. . . .

"A decision could be made in this administration to announce the closure of Guantanamo. It is unlikely in the next nine months that Guantanamo could be physically (closed) but it is possible the policy decision could be taken to close it,” said a senior U.S. official, who spoke on condition he was not identified because of the sensitivity of the issue. . . .

The Supreme Court is expected to rule within weeks whether Guantanamo prisoners have rights under the U.S. Constitution even though they are held on the base in Cuba, where the United States has had a presence for about 100 years.

The court decision could influence whether the U.S. government announces plans to close the prison before Bush leaves office in January 2009, several officials said.

"If the Supreme Court concludes that the detainees have constitutional rights, then there would be little legal difference between holding them in Guantanamo or holding them on the (U.S.) mainland,” one senior official said. http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080502/us_nm/rights_guantanamo_dc_1

-R

# posted by Richard @ 11:04 PM

Monday, May 05, 2008

5/5

Welfare Rolls Growing: Unsurprising trend, in view of the stagnating economy. "When the economy starts to tank, that's when our business starts growing," according to Nevada’s chief of welfare eligibility.

State welfare rolls, which declined for more than a decade after a 1996 overhaul of the nation's cash-assistance program, are beginning to rise, due in part to the struggling economy.

Federal data for the last half of 2007 show welfare rolls rose about 0.6%, and 27 states reported increases. That follows a decline of 68% since the federal law imposed work requirements, time limits and penalties for recipients who don't follow the rules.

"When the economy starts to tank, that's when our business starts growing," says Jeff Brenn, chief of eligibility for Nevada's welfare agency.

The reversal of a downward trend that began in 1994 reflects a hard reality facing the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program: The 3.9 million people who remain on welfare are mostly adults with physical, mental or emotional barriers to employment, as well as children being raised by someone other than their parents — often grandparents, who are not expected to get jobs. http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20080505/1a_lede05.art.htm?loc=interstitialskip

Capital Punishment: Preparations for Executions: Following the Supremes ruling that ended the moratorium, more than a dozen individuals are slated for the next several months.

Here in the nation’s leading death-penalty state, and some of the 35 others with capital punishment, execution dockets are quickly filling up.

Less than three weeks after a United States Supreme Court ruling ended a seven-month moratorium on lethal injections, at least 14 execution dates have been set in six states between May 6 and October.

“The Supreme Court essentially blessed their way of doing things,” said Douglas A. Berman, a professor of law and a sentencing expert at Ohio State University. “So in some sense, they’re back from vacation and ready to go to work.”

Experts say the resumption of executions is likely to throw a strong new spotlight on the divisive national — and international — issue of capital punishment.

“When people confront a new wave of executions, they’ll be questioning not only how people are executed but whether people should be executed,” said James R. Acker, a historian of the death penalty and a criminal justice professor at the State University at Albany.

Texas leads the list with five people now set to die here in the Walls Unit, the state’s death house, between June 3 and Aug. 20. Virginia is next with four. Louisiana, Oklahoma and South Dakota have also set execution dates. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/03/us/03execute.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&ref=todayspaper&pagewanted=print

What’s Happening, Iraq: Iraqis: Iran’s Not Arming Shiites

A top Iraqi official said Sunday there was no "conclusive" evidence that Shiite extremists have been directly supplied with some Iranian arms as alleged by the United States.

Government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said Iraq does not want trouble with any country, "especially Iran."

Al-Dabbagh was commenting on talks this week in Tehran between an Iraqi delegation and Iranian authorities aimed at halting suspected Iranian aid to some Shiite militias.

Asked about reports that some rockets made in 2007 or 2008 and seized in raids against militias were directly supplied by Iran, al-Dabbagh replied: "There is no conclusive evidence."

Al-Dabbagh said Iraq wants friendly ties with Iran and stressed both countries share common interests. http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/05/04/iraq/main4069224.shtml

Or, is Hezbollah the culprit? U.S. claim. Perhaps the major point is that the Iraqis are distancing themselves from U.S. charges, as they don’t view the Iranians and their ‘clients’ as the major problem.

Militants from the Lebanese group Hezbollah have been training Iraqi militia fighters at a camp near Tehran, according to American interrogation reports that the United States has supplied to the Iraqi government.

An American official said the account of Hezbollah’s role was provided by four Shiite militia members who were captured in Iraq late last year and questioned separately.

The United States has long charged that the Iranians were training Iraqi militia fighters in Iran, which Iran has consistently denied, and there have been previous reports about Hezbollah operatives in Iraq.

But the Americans say the reports of Hezbollah’s role at the Iranian camp offer important details about Iranian assistance to the militias, including efforts Iran appears to be making to train the fighters in unobtrusive ways. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/05/world/middleeast/05iran.html?_r=1&oref=slogin&ref=todayspaper&pagewanted=print

CNN: Clinton News Network, or Conservative News Network? In the 90’s the Right accused the network of being pro-Clinton; lately it’s been more than fair to candidate Hillary.

But now the network continues to pursue conservative commentators / activists for its ‘hosts.’ The latest: Frances Townsend, formerly Bush’s terrorism adviser. She joins Tony Snow, J.C. Watts and William Bennett on the CNN team.

Frances Fragos Townsend will be announced tomorrow as a CNN contributor, joining former colleague Tony Snow. Townsend was assistant to the president for homeland security and counterterrorism and is a Yankee fan. http://www.politico.com/playbook/0508/playbook295.html

CAMPAIGN: Context: Obama with a 6-9 point lead in North Carolina; even in Indiana

Amidst whispers- still- of an Obama-Clinton ticket, the Rovian tactics of the Clinton campaign continue. The Right now freely acknowledges the Clinton-Right echo, witness this piece from The Weekly Standard:

She's running a right-wing campaign. She's running the classic Republican race against her opponent, running on toughness and use-of-force issues, the campaign that the elder George Bush ran against Michael Dukakis, that the younger George Bush waged in 2000 and then again against John Kerry, and that Ronald Reagan--"The Bear in the Forest"--ran against Jimmy Carter and Walter F. Mondale. And she's doing it with much the same symbols.http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/015/063kvafy.asp?pg=2

Robert Reich comments on Clinton’s pseudo-populist tact on the gas tax, as she seeks to portray herself as fighting for ‘the common person while Obama won’t fight the oil interests.’ (sic)

When asked this morning by ABC News' George Stephanopoulos if she could name a single economist who backs her call for a gas tax holiday this summer, HRC said "I'm not going to put my lot in with economists."